Meet the Fat Belly

Recently I’ve been reading Chris Anderson’s The Long Tail, which describes the new marketplace economics enabled by the Internet. In brief, the Internet exposes consumers to the “long tail” of products (music, DVDs, books — just about anything) that isn’t readily available in the traditional bricks-and-mortar outfits. It’s a great read, though I’m still trying to sort out how to use long tail economics to my advantage.
Robert Young over at GigaOM has written an an excellent analysis that expands (figuratively and literally) on Andersen’s long tail. Young introduces the fat belly.

Having been involved with the Internet since literally day zero of its commercial inception (back in November 1992), I have had a front-row seat watching the power of our medium’s “democratizing” effects. Digg is a great example of such effects as the value proposition of the entire system is reliant on the most democratic of all instruments… one person, one vote. Consequently, I’m a big fan of Chris Anderson’s “Long Tail” thesis, as I find the framework to be remarkably consistent with my own experiences and observations. Yet, when one attempts to understand the strategic implications of Digg, and its role as a democratizing force, even the Long Tail paradigm fails to fully showcase its true, disruptive nature.
While I won’t go into the details of the Long Tail thesis here (read Chris’ book), suffice it to say that what I find limiting is the fact that he divides the power law distribution curve into only two segments… the hit-driven head (what I call the “Big Head”) and, obviously, the long tail. What’s missing, in my opinion, is actually the most important part… the section in the middle of the curve that I affectionately call the “Fat Belly”.

The recognition of the existence of the Fat Belly is critical for many reasons, but allow me boil it all down to this overarching statement: Any economist or political scientist will agree that the health of any democratic society that’s fueled by free market capitalism is measured by the robustness of its middle class. A large and vibrant middle class demonstrates a healthy redistribution of wealth within a nation and its economy, ultimately serving as a catalyst for the power of one vote and equality amongst its peers/citizens. What all this means, and to bring this back down to earth, is simply that I prefer to segment the power law curve into three distinct segments… the big head, the fat belly, and the long tail.

Now, why is this relevant/important? The answer is simple… in my view, the potential success of any Internet venture, particularly for those heavily reliant on the development of an online community of active participants, is directly correlated with the concept’s ability to create a large and dominant Fat Belly… much like a successful democracy will result in a large and dominant middle class. And towards such ends, Digg is one of the best examples I’ve seen.

GigaOM » Digg that Fat Belly!

As I’ve read The Long Tail, I’ve been searching for an application to areas of my own life. Certainly there is “long tail content” in a mature knowledge management system. Well-established websites and forums such as BigBlueBall contain a lot of long tail content, as do blogs that have been around for any time. The big head is great, but unpredictable. The long tail is nice, but not especially valuable unless you can aggregate the value of the entire tail. The fat belly is the sweet spot for most niche players. Not a top ten hit, but popular enough to draw a significant audience.
If you consider Anderson’s long tail theory carefully, you will find that the curve reshapes itself over time, with the fat belly indeed growing bigger.
Here’s to fat bellys!

technorati tags:long_tail, gigaom, chris_anderson, fat_belly